Friday, January 29, 2016

Predictions about the Future from 100 Years Ago

I worked with a partner, Avani, to research about what people used to think about the future in the past and about 100 years ago.
What predictions about the future were people making 100 years ago? 50 years ago?

The article "Ten 100-Year Predictions That Came True" about the predictions of John Elfreth Watkins shows he thought fruit would be larger, trains would go 150 miles per hour, people would be able to communicate from across the world, and people would be taller.

Determine if the list is a “wish list” – as in, these are the things one might hope for in the future, or more a warning.

The majority of the predictions I read were optimistic. A few, however, were warnings.

Which predictions seem to have come true? Which turned out to be bizarre, off-track, or still out of reach?

"Ten 100-Year Predictions That Came True" lists that it was predicted that "digital" color photography and cell phones were predicted, in a way. A bizarre prediction from "7 of the Craziest Predictions for the Future, From the Past" was that people would eventually all be illiterate because of television, and that people would turn into cyclops.

Can you identify any trends or patterns in these predictions? What concerns or achievements do they seem focused on?  For example, do people in general seem to be anticipating a better world?

I can anticipate that people were generally excited about a future of healthier, more interconnected people. They all focus more on the health of people, transportation, and communication. "How Our Predictions for the Year 2000 Changed Throughout the 20th Century" says that Robert Heinlein predicted small mobile phones and interplanetary travel.
It is your turn to predict a future world.  What do you see?

I see the future as highly, highly specialized. More and more people are going to college. It is becoming an expectation for a large percent of the population. The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande talks about how doctors and other professions require increasingly more years of schooling, because technology is so advanced; we have to go further than acquiring a general education in certain fields just to keep up with what we know. I feel like in the future, people will not enter the workforce until they are super old.


Imagine this older professional is new to his practice.











How much control over the future do we have? What role(s) do you see for individuals, institutions, groups like international organizations, corporations, non-profits, NGOs, governments, etc. in shaping what happens?

I think that I, an individual, have a little bit of control over the future, but I do not know where. Groups have more control over the development of the world, but individuals, in a way, have the most power, because they choose what groups they wish to join and what areas they want to help progress. Individuals strengthen the groups, and groups uplift individuals. I do not have a desire to enter the tech industry, cyber security industry, or social media industry, and I really think that these groups of people have a lot of power over shaping the future popular and economic trends. Everyone in politics, government, and religion are part of a larger entity, so they will have power over the future in monitoring the views people develop in the future.

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